With the end of Ahmet Davutoglu’s, dubbed Turkey’s Kissinger, chapter and the coming of his successor Binali Yıldırım to the post of Prime Minister and Leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey has entered a new phase. This phase can be called the Neo-Erdoganism, as an abridged political term that depicts the political landscape currently surrounding the AKP. Therefore, this term represents the identity of Turkey itself in the coming period, according to the agenda declared by Erdogan, which is, first and foremost, represented in the transition to the Presidential System.
Features of Neo-Erdoganism
When the AKP came to power in 2002, the process was based on the laws of democracy through ballot boxes. At that time, AKP worked hard to introduce itself as a reformist party, committed to the democratic and secular foundations on which the Turkish Republic was established. However, once the AKP established its presence on the political scene, it immediately started to transform its tactical steps into a strategy seeking to monopolize power. Thus, the party controlled the three powers (the Government, the Parliament, and the Republic). Then, the AKP began the stage of changing the whole political system from within the system, through a series of comprehensive, integrated measures.
Through those measures and steps, the AKP succeeded in place the Judiciary, the Courts, Education, Media, Economic institutions, and even the Army under its control. In many cases, this mentioned change took two contradicted courses: first, reform primarily targeting to restructure the ruling system and the entire political landscape. Second, it worked to wage a war against what is referred to as the shadow system, with the main purpose to eliminate political opponents, whether inside the army; or through targeting political and social rivals, especially members of the Fethullah Gulen Movement, which was widely influential in numerous entities and institutions across the country.
Thus, AKP succeeded in controlling all the keys to civil society in the country, before transformation to the Erdoganism stage. This stage started with the ascendance of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the post of President of the Republic in 2014, through direct elections from the people, for the first time in the history of the Turkish Republic; as members of Parliament formally elected the president. So Erdogan believes that the elections gave him the public legitimacy which entitles him to intervene in various details of political and party life in the country. In fact, this view starkly contradicts the Turkish constitution, which prevents the President from practicing any partisan activity, particularly because his position as President of the Republic is an honorary position more than an executive one.
From this point, differences arose between him and Ahmet Davutoglu. With the accumulation of differences and the insistence of Erdogan on carrying on with his agenda to the end, Davutoglu found no alternative but to resign from his post under the pressure of Erdogan. Accordingly, Turkey has entered the stage of Neo-Erdoganism. Most important feature of this stage is the transformation from the heavy control of AKP on state institutions to Erdogan’s Personal Control. This mutation became obvious when Erdogan effectively became the leader of the party, and the one who devises its policies appoints its senior leaders and the members of its central committee and other leading councils. All these changes created a danger for the AKP itself, as eventually it became very much like authoritarian ruling parties, tied to the leader’s character, whereby such parties quickly collapse when the leader departs the scene.
New Government Agenda
Some individuals believe that Ahmet Davutoglu was the last real Prime Minister of Turkey, and this position will never have any influential role in the coming stage. The main task of the Prime Minister became to implement the agenda of Erdogan, seeking to accomplish Erdogan’s Turkey 2023 Vision. This vision entails putting an end to the secular Republic established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. It also means declaring the rise of Turkey in a new Ottoman character, on the centennial anniversary of the dissolution of Ottoman Caliphate, and the establishment of the secular Republican System in 1924. Accordingly, the task of the new Turkish Prime Minister is definied in a pre-determined agenda. The important elements of this agenda include:
1. Transition from a Parliamentary to a Presidential System. The first stage in the transformation plan is based on securing the approval of the Parliament to pass the ‘transition’ law. To achieve this transformation, rigorous consultations launched by Binali Yıldırım with opposition parties, particularly the Republican People’s Party, and the Nationalist Movement Party are taking place. What happened recently regarding voting on the bill to lift MPs’ immunity from prosecution, and amendment of Article 83 of the Constitution, encourages the move in this direction. In case this option fails, the alternative would be conducting early general elections.
2. Devising a new Constitution for Turkey, to put an end to the Constitution adopted by Military Leaders in the wake of the 1980 Coup. The new Constitution is expected to include – besides the presidential system – a redefinition of secularism, in a way that allows reviving the role of religion in the ruling, judiciary and public life. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that the statements of new parliament speaker, Ismail Kahraman, about adopting a religious based Constitution and getting rid of secularism, was not just a slip of the tongue, rather it was an articulation of a political fact about the AKP. It is also considered a trial balloon to know the people’s reactions towards this sensitive issue for the political system in Turkey.
3. Continuing the battle against the Gulen Movement, under the guise of eliminating the shadow system. Erdogan became fully convinced that the Gulen Group is working inside and outside Turkey to oust Erdogan’s rule. Therefore, Erdoganism requires eradication of the group’s structure and dismissing the Gulan Group’s members from state institutions and agencies through every possible means and measures to eliminate the threats to Erdogan’s vision.
4. Continuing the war against the Kurdish movement and its aspirations to establish an autonomous entity, under the slogan of fighting terrorism conducted by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Furthermore, the agenda included continuing the war against the Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (PKK), through stripping its members of Parliament from immunity, paving the road for their prosecution and imprisonment, then reaching the point of banning the party. The central target of all these steps is to eliminate any possibility to establish an independent Kurdish region inside Turkey’s borders similar to what occurred in Iraq and Syria. Erdogan understands well that the developments of the Kurdish cause in these two countries will reflect on Turkey’s Kurds and their aspirations. It is worth noting that the population of Kurds in Turkey is larger than their numbers in Iraq, Iran and Syria.
5. On the list of priorities for Binali Yildirim’s government is to curb the economic recession and the Turkish Lira collapse. Such a task requires some economic miracle, due to the tense relations between Turkey and many countries, and Turkey sliding towards a period of instability. This situation adversely affects internal and external investments which constitute one of the most important secrets behind the economic success of the AKP rule.
6. Reconstruction of the AKP. The AKP will establish a new Central Committee and leadership body. All members occupying these positions may be selected based on their loyalty to Erdogan. This leadership will have common partisan, political and economic interests, that fall within Erdogan’s vision but also to prevent the construction of opposing poles that are not consistent with, his vision, will, and policy.
Erdogan believes that achieving the targets of the agenda mentioned above will lead to the realization of his vision for New Turkey 2023, which according to his belief will pave the way to establishing a leading country in the Middle East.
Internal and External Challenges
The course adopted by Erdogan to control the tracks of the Turkish political path in the coming period has placed Turkey with a number of internal and external challenges with detrimental effects on the state.
1. Internal Challenges:
Among the early political consequences of the policy adopted by Erdogan, is eliminating every political opposition in the country, including the existing opposition in the Parliament and other historical political parties, such as the Republican People’s Party, which exemplifies Atatürk’s heritage. Erdoganism might also confront the will of crucial components, particularly the Kurdish component who succeeded to elevate one political party to the Parliament via ballot boxes. Moreover, the implementation of this agenda means more violent escalation and more wars against the Kurdish movement, mainly against the PKK with its huge fighting expertise.
The PKK also enjoy immense influence among the Kurds in Eastern and Southern parts of Turkey. Making Turkey vulnerable to a period of instability and expose it to many uncertainties. The situation is particularly worrying due to the dramatic developments witnessed regarding the Kurdish cause in the geographically neighboring areas, and the potential that the Kurdish party might receive support from outside, which means opening the door for widespread international recognition of the Kurdish cause.
Additionally, the confrontation with the Gulen Group and continuing the war against various economic and media institutions which disagree with Erdogan, make the current situation in Turkey highly volatile. Worth mentioning was the uprising at Taksim Gezi Park in Istanbul in 2013, which is still fresh in memory, which pushed for the civil society and secular institutions to move against Erdogan’s policies.
2. External Challenges:
Apart from strained relations with Egypt, Russia, and Iraq, Turkish foreign policy suffers from a range of huge burdens. On the Syrian crisis front, this policy does not seem capable of achieving miracles in the aftermath of the complications resulting from the crisis and US-Russian attempts to solve the crisis via political means, while ignoring the Turkish demand to oust the Bashar al-Assad regime. This emerging situation puts Ankara in front of a difficult test taking the shape of draining its powers which make Turkish strategy vulnerable to erosion on one side; and puts its internal security at a great risk on the other side, taking into account the recent terrorist attacks perpetrated by ISIS in several Turkish cities.
From the Western perspective, the image drawn by Erdogan for the coming Turkey is the image of a man who is terminating pluralism and democracy, in favor of a one-man party ruling over the state with an iron fist. Moreover, the future inclinations of Erdogan constitute, in their depth, a huge diversion from the mechanisms which established relations with the West, creating a predicament for the historical, geographical and political options of the state. As a result, Erdogan’s vision can cause the collapse of the EU-Turkey agreement in response to the refugee crisis, and put an end to Turkey’s quest to join the European Union.
However, Turkey entered the stage of Neo-Erdoganism, through which Erdogan hopes to establish a state that imitates the glories of the forefathers under the reign of Ottoman Sultans. This aspiration is too wild, and its achievement will not be easy, considering the current changes and dramatic developments witnessed by Turkey, the Middle East, and the entire world.
